August 2009
Cincinnati Financial Corporation, an ICRFS-Plus™ subscriber, has an innovative way of presenting shareholder reports. They conduct them live as conference calls with interested parties and then podcast the recordings.
Listen to the report for 1Q 2009 to hear about how “new predictive modelling tools” are helping them get an edge on long-tail liability risks.
Jump to 9’55” to hear about how the statistical estimation of calendar trends can give a new precision to forecasts and go to 21’00” to hear how the PTF modelling framework is explained in a non-technical way.
There is only one product on the market that can offer the unparalleled benefits of statistical modelling of long tail liability risks backed by sound mathematics, only one product that puts the essential drivers of reserve volatility clearly on the screen for reserving actuaries, risk managers and all the stakeholders who care about getting the best results, only one product that can give consistent estimates of prior year ultimates on updating, only one product that allows you to assess accurately how much capital can be released as profit, only one product that can put your company financially and strategically ahead in respect of optimal capital allocation by LOB, calendar year and optimal retention, and only one product that is a tour de force of interactive design and computational speed.
The report for 2Q 2009 has just been released and will also be of interest to ICRFS-Plus™ users. Cincinnati Financials have already taken on-board the new emphasis on the need to improve underwriting performance in times such as these when investment returns are falling. To remain in the game it is sometimes necessary to pass on business where competitors are underpriced, but to make that decision requires accurate forecasts for future underwriting years. This is why underwriters at Cincinnati Financials are using predictive modelling as a pricing tool. (Listen at 26’00”)
Additionally the forecast scenario detailing and monitoring which ICRFS-Plus™ is uniquely empowered to do makes the kind of discussion heard at 51’20” possible.
For example, we create a conservative forecast with a positive calendar trend which we have some probability of meeting with, but if in the next reporting period this has not appeared we can revise the scenario by displacing the trend forward. The difference in the before and after reserve aggregates can then be released as underwriting profit, and this calculation can be done now before the next reporting period!
February 2009
New: Using ICRFS COM, it is now possible to import S&P SynThesys NonLife database into an ICRFS-Plus™ database for further analysis.
January 2009
Alliance Announced - Insureware partners with James, Brennan & Associates.
August 2008
GI ROC reserving study - Effectiveness of Reserving Methods Working Party. Click here for the Institute of Actuaries UK Working Party page which talks about the research project and mentions ICRFS-Plus™ as one of the "reserving methods" to be tested.
June 2008
Training videos for ICRFS-Plus™ new users have now been released. The videos have been broken up into case studies and extensive examples are available. The main video page is available here. To order the training videos as a 2-CD set please contact support@insureware.com.
May 2008
A paper presenting important properties of the average link ratio methods including the Mack method is available here.
An important update for 10.2 has been released. This update is available from the Support page and is applicable only if COM for uneven period is being used or some of the standard actuarial methods are being applied. Please see the update notes for more details.
February 2008
ICRFS-Plus™ 10.2 has now been released.
ICRFS-Plus™ 10.2 has many exciting new features including the following:
- Uneven sampling periods allowing annual reviews with quarterly evaluations.
- Analysis of short tail lines of business via annual accident periods with monthly development periods
- Direct modelling of changing accident period variance
- Enhanced forecast scenario options
- Within cluster optimisation in MPTF
- Enhanced COM functionality
A paper discussing bootstrapping and the Mack method is available here.
Older (2007) news is available here.