ICFS-Plus: Actuarial Software for the Property and Causality Insurance Industry

ICRFS-ELRF™ 12 Professional

 

 

Features and Benefits not available in other costly products!

ICRFS-ELRF™ 12 Professional Includes:

  • Full range of LRT models, with extensive ratio selections (any size of diagonal with selection of average, weighted average, geometric average, maximum/minimum ratios).
  • All standard actuarial methods, including Mack and Murphy. Weighted average link ratios are formalised as regression estimators, with the further options of intercept and constant accident period trend for each development period.
  • Forecasting by link ratio, Bornhuetter-Ferguson and Expected Loss Ratio.
  • Projected Case Estimates, Payments Per Claim Incurred and Fisher-Lange methods.
  • Diagnostic statistics to test assumptions made by the model.
  • Forecasts future calendar periods and calculates the standard errors of each year's forecast reserve.
  • Exposure and premium, letting you calculate loss ratios and exposure adjusted models.
  • Compatible with Access, SQL, Oracle and Interbase databases.
  • Uneven sampling periods and collapsing of arrays supported.
  • Importing and exporting via XML.
  • Saving and loading of models, drag-and-drop transfer between databases including variables and values.
  • COM enabled for seamless integration with other software.

For information about ICRFS-Plus™ 12, click here.

For information about ICRFS-ELRF™ 12 Free click here, which has limited database capability and no COM facility but otherwise fully featured.

For details of the differences between ICRFS-Plus™ 12, ICRFS-ELRF™ 12 Professional and ICRFS-ELRF™ 12 Free, click here.


Database

An ICRFS-ELRF™ Professional database allows you to navigate effortlessly through your loss development arrays, models and reports with a few mouse clicks.


Link Ratio Techniques (LRT)

The link ratio techniques (LRT) module of ICRFS-ELRF™ Professional includes methods that are based on the standard average weighted link ratio techniques.


Extended Link Ratio Family (ELRF)

This module is an extension of the LRT module where average weighted link ratios are formalized as regression estimators through the origin, this incorporates the Mack method. These are extended to other modelling components of interest, including intercepts (the Murphy method) and constant accident year trends. Resulting benefits include forecast standard error and testing that assumptions made by the model are supported by the data. Are there any features in the data not in the model and vice versa?

 

Other Traditional Methods

The Bornheutter-Ferguson method is automatically computed for LRT and ELRF forecasts if the Premium and Expected Loss Ratio figures have been associated with the data. In addition Payments per Claim Incurred (PPCI), Projected Case Estimates (PCE) and the Fisher-Lange method can all be computed when the appropriate data is included in the ICRFS-Plus database.


Now Insureware lets you:

  1. Test the claim that link ratio techniques lack predictive power and cannot capture volatility in the data.
  2. Use the models and techniques described in the ELRF section of the paper "Best Estimates for Reserves", that is now on the CAS Syllabus of Examinations.

Training videos are available for ICRFS-ELRF™ Professional along with FAQs

 

"Extended Link Ratio Family (ELRF) models are the statistically derived and extended versions of the traditional actuarial Link Ratio Techniques (LRT), such as chain ladder. They provide more powerful modelling and enable statistical testing of the validity of the assumptions in the models. They almost invariably prove: "that in almost all real-world scenarios the data does not support those assumptions"

"I highly recommend "Best Estimates for Reserves" and hope that more of us will begin to use the methods that Barnett and Zehnwirth describe."

"Although the actuarial literature is replete with articles explaining the shortcomings of the traditional link ratio methods, most actuarial reserve analyses mainly rely on link ratio methods"

[Frederick Cripe, Chairperson, Casualty Accident Society (CAS), Research Policy and Management Committee.]