Videos marked with an (*) contain discussion of new content in ICRFS-Plus 10.6.
If for any reason you are unable to view the training or demonstration videos, please contact our support staff at firstname.lastname@example.org and we will arrange to send you a copy of the videos on CD-ROM. You will be able to run the videos from the CD.
The training videos should be used for hands on training. We suggest you run the videos on a separate computer using a data projector, and train as a group.
The only way you will learn all the new concepts and be able to exploit all the immense benefits is by using the system. Experiential learning is imperative.
It is important that you study the videos in sequential order as set out below.
- 6.1 Manual modelling, constraints, model templates
- 6.2 Wizard, simulations, release of capital as profit, and more
- 6.3 Reserve upgrades and conditional statistics
- 6.4 Modelling wizard revisited in the context of CS5
6. TG ABC: modelling wizard, simulations, and release of capital as profit
6.1 Manual modelling, constraints, model templates
In this video, we discuss parameter constraints in the context of the triangle group ABC. Model templates are also revised.
Modelling is done from first principles as video 4.1. Parameters are added according to trend (or level) changes.
Parameter constraints can be set up manually or automatically through the optimise routine (assuming constraints are permitted in modelling preferences - the default). Removing of constraints is also demonstrated.
The video illustrating ABC, modelling, constraints and model templates is available here. (22 minutes).
6.2 Wizard, simulations, release of capital as profit, and more
The Separation Method (SM), a model template, in the PTF modelling framework, is used to compare two accident year exposure vectors.
Constraints (between non contiguous parameters) are briefly revisited. Optimization options are demonstrated with the different constraint options. The purpose of constraints and conditions where constraints apply are also discussed. Constraints are most often found for accident levels (for example, to account for unusual events) or in calendar periods (to revert back to previous trends after a legislative change, for example).
Modelling in the ELRF modelling framework (including Mack) is discussed and compared with the PTF modelling framework. In the ELRF modelling framework we do not have any control future calendar year trend assumptions, nor do we know what trends have been measured by the model.
Triangles are simulated from the optimal PTF model. It is almost impossible to distinguish between the simulated triangles and the real data. The forecasts (total reserve distribution) are statistically the same for the simulated triangles and the real data.
Future scenario formulation is illustrated. Two forecast scenarios are compared to assess the release of capital as profit at the end of the next calendar year, if the more conservative scenario does not play out for the next year.
The TG ABC is updated (expanded) to include the next calendar period. Models are also updated and are effortlessly monitored.
The video illustrating these concepts can be viewed here. (44 minutes).
6.3 Reserve upgrades and conditional statistics
We discuss reserve upgrades and conditions under which estimates of prior accident year ultimates remain consistent when updating, that is, adding another calendar period.
Two new conditional statistics are introduced in the FS (forecast summary) displays, namely, the standard deviation of the mean ultimates conditional on next calendar periods data (+_Ult|Data), and the mean of the standard deviation of the ultimate conditional on next calendar periods data (St. Dev|Data).
The above mentioned statistics are relevant to a one year horizon view of the balance sheet of a company.
To view this video click here (16 minutes).
6.4 Modelling wizard revisited in the context of CS5
The modelling wizard is revisited using TG CS5. The models the wizard produces are compared and tested. If you get the wizard model sequence: M1 M4 M6 (note that M4 is the same as M6), usually M4=M1 and if they are not the same M4 is most often better than M1. Wizard generated models must always be tested.
The models produced by the wizard for CS5 are evaluated and compared.
It is very important to critically evaluate any zero trends (iotas) set by the wizard in the calendar period direction.
View the video on Updating a TG and modelling Wizard revisited here.