ICFS-Plus: Actuarial Software for the Property and Causality Insurance Industry

Videos marked with an (*) contain discussion of new content in ICRFS-Plus™ 12.

If for any reason you are unable to view the training or demonstration videos, please contact our support staff at support@insureware.com and we will arrange to send you a copy of the videos on CD-ROM. You will be able to run the videos from the CD.

The training videos should be used for hands on training. We suggest you run the videos on a separate computer using a data projector, and train as a group.

The only way you will learn all the new concepts and be able to exploit all the immense benefits is by using the system. Experiential learning is imperative.

It is important that you study the videos in sequential order as set out below.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction to ICRFS-Plus™ 12 and modelling modules

    2. Modelling using the Link Ratio Techniques and Extended Link Ratio Family modelling framework

      3. Introduction to the Probabilistic Trend Family modelling framework

        4. Modelling real data (CTP) in the PTF modelling framework

          5. TG CS5: heteroscedasticity and varying parameters

            6. TG ABC: modelling wizard, simulations, and release of capital as profit

            7. Importing of data from other applications and COM Automation

              8. Further PTF Modelling Examples

                9. Layers and the PALD Module

                  10. Introduction to MPTF

                    11. Clusters and MPTF Concepts

                      12. Capital Management of long tail liabilities

                        13. Solvency II one year risk horizon: SCR, Best Estimate of Liabilities (BEL), Technical Provisions (TP), and Market Value (Risk) Margins (MVM) for the aggregate of long-tail LOBs

                          14. Other applications of the MPTF modelling framework

                            15. The Bootstrap: how it shows the Mack method doesn't work

                              16. Updates from 10.6 to 11

                                6. TG ABC: modelling wizard, simulations, and release of capital as profit

                                6.1 Manual modelling, constraints, model templates

                                In this video, we discuss parameter constraints in the context of the triangle group ABC. Model templates are also revised.

                                Modelling is done from first principles as video 4.1. Parameters are added according to trend (or level) changes.

                                Parameter constraints can be set up manually or automatically through the optimise routine (assuming constraints are permitted in modelling preferences - the default). Removing of constraints is also demonstrated.

                                6.2 Wizard, simulations, release of capital as profit, and more

                                The Separation Method (SM), a model template, in the PTF modelling framework, is used to compare two accident year exposure vectors.

                                Constraints (between non contiguous parameters) are briefly revisited. Optimization options are demonstrated with the different constraint options. The purpose of constraints and conditions where constraints apply are also discussed. Constraints are most often found for accident levels (for example, to account for unusual events) or in calendar periods (to revert back to previous trends after a legislative change, for example).

                                Modelling in the ELRF modelling framework (including Mack) is discussed and compared with the PTF modelling framework. In the ELRF modelling framework we do not have any control future calendar year trend assumptions, nor do we know what trends have been measured by the model.

                                Triangles are simulated from the optimal PTF model. It is almost impossible to distinguish between the simulated triangles and the real data. The forecasts (total reserve distribution) are statistically the same for the simulated triangles and the real data.

                                Future scenario formulation is illustrated. Two forecast scenarios are compared to assess the release of capital as profit at the end of the next calendar year, if the more conservative scenario does not play out for the next year.

                                The TG ABC is updated (expanded) to include the next calendar period. Models are also updated and are effortlessly monitored.

                                6.3 Reserve upgrades and conditional statistics

                                We discuss reserve upgrades and conditions under which estimates of prior accident year ultimates remain consistent when updating, that is, adding another calendar period.

                                Two new conditional statistics are introduced in the FS (forecast summary) displays, namely, the standard deviation of the mean ultimates conditional on next calendar periods data (+_Ult|Data), and the mean of the standard deviation of the ultimate conditional on next calendar periods data (St. Dev|Data).

                                The above mentioned statistics are relevant to a one year horizon view of the balance sheet of a company.

                                6.4 Modelling wizard revisited in the context of CS5

                                The modelling wizard is revisited using TG CS5. The models the wizard produces are compared and tested. If you get the wizard model sequence: M1 M4 M6 (note that M4 is the same as M6), usually M4=M1 and if they are not the same M4 is most often better than M1. Wizard generated models must always be tested.

                                The models produced by the wizard for CS5 are evaluated and compared.

                                It is very important to critically evaluate any zero trends (iotas) set by the wizard in the calendar period direction.