ICRFS-Plus™ Training videos for new users
If for any reason you are unable to view the training or demonstration videos, please contact our support staff at support@insureware.com and we will arrange to send you a copy of the videos on CD-Rom. You will be able to run the videos from the CD.
The training videos should be used for hands on training.
We suggest you run the videos on a separate computer using a data projector, and train as a group.
The only way you will learn all the new concepts and be able to
exploit all the immense benefits is by using the system. Experiential
learning is imperative.
It is important that you study the videos in sequential order set
out below.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction to ICRFS-Plus™ 10 and modelling modules
- 1.1 Database and Benefits
- 1.2 Introduction to the Link Ratio (LRT) and Extended Link Ratio Family (ELRF) modules
- 1.3 Introduction to the Probabilistic Trend Family (PTF) module
3. ICRFS-Plus™ 10 modelling wizard and other features
5. ICRFS-Plus™ 10 and NAIC Schedule P
1. Introduction to ICRFS-Plus™ 10 and modelling modules
1.1 Database and Benefits
The database functionality and navigation is studied. Data, models and links to reports all reside in one relational database. A database can either be remote (on server that is shareable) or local. Communication between two databases has the same intuitive feel as using Windows Explorer for communicating between two sub-folders. The objects in the database are Triangle Groups (TG) and Composite Triangle Groups (CTG). TGs (and CTGs) also contain objects, namely, triangles, exposures, premiums, data sets, models and reports.
The various modules LRT, ELRF, PTF and MPTF of the system are introduced. Benefits afforded by the paradigm shift are also described. The critical difference between variability and uncertainty is illustrated with two gambling examples.
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1.2 Introduction to the Link Ratio (LRT) and Extended Link Ratio Family (ELRF) modules
The LRT and ELRF modules are applied to the incurred (Mack) array. Average link ratios can be regarded as average trends and so can be estimated in a regression framework. The ELRF module computes average weighted link ratios in a regression framework that includes all the LRT functionality. Link ratios are extended to include intercepts and constant trends in the incrementals, and a number of diagnostic tests are provided for identifying the best model in this family. Forecast standard errors are also given. The mathematics of link ratios and extended link ratios is also studied.
Three mutually exclusive conditions satisfied by data are introduced. For all but one development period the Mack incurred data satisfy condition 1. Even where the development period satisfies condition 2, link ratios do not have any predictive power (for this incurred array). This study is also discussed in the paper "Best Estimates for Reserves".
Various icons (buttons) are illustrated including regression tables, residual graphs, Y/X plots, forecast tables and forecast summaries.
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1.3 Introduction to the Probabilistic Trend Family (PTF) module
The axiomatic trend properties of trends satisfied by every triangle are explained using a simple simulated example. Subsequent to adding process variability to the trend structure, the data are modeled in order to explain a number of statistical concepts. The simulated data are included in the triangle group called M3IR5.
Adding parameters and removal of years of observations is simply conducted by clicking on residual graphs. Residuals are regarded as the data adjusted to what is fitted to the data. A number of new buttons and displays are introduced, including diagnostic tools and model displays.
Validation analysis is introduced as an approach to extracting additional information for the data, and testing the stability of trends.
The identified model forecasts lognormal distributions for each cell and their correlations, conditional on an explicit set of assumptions.
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